Indeed. Especially since HN is probably considered "old and cranky" but the younger generation, who get their dose of language flamewars and JS framework from some other place that I can't know of. (Can you get a decent "common lisp vs scheme" flame on tiktok ?)
Iran hit a uae ship today. For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? If it's in bitcoin then the payments would be visible if you know/suspect the wallets ot amounts.
> For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments?
Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait.
But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.
Iran's goal is to become the superpower of the middle east. This has always involved getting the bomb, but now with Trump's gift of a war he can't win, they'll also take control of the strait of Hormuz.
If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it.
Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that.
So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means.
It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
For now but they can build pipelines and such. Iraq is discussing sending one through Syria.
I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
Sure I should have been more specific when I said oil. Those pipelines will have to be redirected or Iran will just have to leave them be. Blowing them up would result in reciprocal action of blowing up Iranian oil and gas facilities. It goes both ways.
Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz.
That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions.
The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
Definitely easier said than done but necessary nonetheless.
> The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces.
Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control.
You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
> except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through
How exactly will the US do that?
They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
The US controls it right now in the same way that Iran does. No ships are allowed through without permission. You’re aware we have blockaded the Straight, right?
The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade.
If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait?
For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
>Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
We should be aware that the Iranian regime exists in a environment that justifies lying in situations where they sense the need to do so. It should be admitted that they are not the only ones.
That’s part of his standard bag of tricks. Say loads of ridiculous offensive threatening stuff. See what sticks with his base. Let the sycophants around him laugh nervously but not explicitly say he’s joking unless he does first. He’s only joking when it suits and not joking when it also suits.
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slashdot_effect
It was supposed to be a Beowulf cluster of Furbies, right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_Rolling_Stones_con...
You might miss a submarine or two.
from 80-100 in February
to 1-8 past 200 days (tiny hump during fake MOU)
click on YTD
* https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...
* https://i.imgur.com/fDonsfs.png
the real question is what is pressing down oil prices?
some scam we don't know about yet?
because strategic oil reserve is now below 300 million barrels which means it is experiencing permanent damage that cannot be repaired
Or are the attacks on ships more or less random?
Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait.
But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.
If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that.
So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means.
It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz.
That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions.
The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
> The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces.
Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control.
You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
How exactly will the US do that?
They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait?
For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
They certain don’t control the straight, because Iran can attack any ship passing through with ease and the US can’t stop them.
Notice how no US navy ships are going through? They know they’ll be sunk. That doesn’t sound like control to me.
This is absolutely 100% not true. Iran had a fatwa against obtaining nuclear weapon weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons
That is until the United States started bombing them
Iranian politician Ali Motahari said the fatwa only forbids the use of a nuclear weapon, not its creation.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027
>Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
https://iranmonitor.org
What a fallen nation
/I kid, I kid, it wouldn't work
Unfortunately, none of the other things that should have been jokes, weren't
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
Tommy DeVito: [it becomes quiet]
Funny how? What's funny about it?
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER